Simulation in policy analysis: the transfer of facilities within the department of energy's environmental management program

This paper explains how process simulation can be applied as a policy analysis tool. While many simulations are used to evaluate and improve specific processes, few are currently used as a policy analysis or decision-making tool. For the purpose of choosing from several potential policy choices, a simulation model can describe the probable outcomes under each alternative in a concise and easily understood manner. Such a model can combine the work of several more traditional policy analysis tools into a single analysis that, once designed, can be performed in a fraction of the time. The specific case presented in this paper is the transfer of deactivated facilities from one organization (the Office of Nuclear Material and Facility Stabilization) to another (the Office of Environmental Restoration) within the Department of Energy's Environmental Management program. The model was developed using VENSIM, an off-the-shelf modeling software package. With the completed model, several potential policy choices regarding the rate of facility transfer were assessed to identify funding and scheduling problems with each policy.