Probability distribution evaluation of distribution system reliability indices using a time sequential simulation technique

The time varying nature of system load and interruption cost in a distribution system affects both the mean values and the probability distributions of the system reliability indices. This paper presents a time sequential Monte Carlo simulation technique to evaluate the reliability indices and their probability distributions. The means and standard deviations of reliability indices for a test system are presented. The effects on the probability distributions of the time varying load model (TVLM) and time varying cost model (TVCM) are investigated.