The role of plug-in electric vehicles in reducing energy and CO2 emissions in Istanbul: A system dynamics approach

The transportation sector is one of the primary sources of energy consumption and associated carbon emissions. To devise policies to most effectively reduce fossil fuel use and improve air quality, it is critical to understand and analyze complex factors in transportation networks. Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) have emerged as a viable and attractive solution in addressing the aforementioned problems as PEVs have higher fuel efficiency and lower emissions per unit distance. In this paper, we developed a system dynamics (SD) model for the transportation sector in Istanbul, Turkey and analyzed the impacts of various PEV penetration rates on the energy usage and carbon emissions until the year 2025. The results show that even in the near-term a sizable amount of savings can be achieved in both energy use and CO2 emissions. Such considerations are crucial in this early stage of PEV adoption.