Challenges for probabilistic generation adequacy assessment in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper explores the need for, and challenges associated with the probabilistic assessment of the generation adequacy of power systems in Sub-Saharan Africa, using Kenya and Ghana as examples. Some relevant distinctive characteristics of these systems are discussed, and previous work in this area is reviewed. Illustrative data analysis for the future Kenyan system is presented, exploring the temporal relationship between the wind power resource, demand, and the hydro power resource - to provide insight on the potential contribution of large wind projects to generation adequacy.