Generation of large-scale PV scenarios using aggregated power curves

The contribution of solar photovoltaic (PV) power to the generation is becoming more relevant in modern power system. Therefore, there is a need to model the variability large-scale PV generation accurately. This paper presents a novel methodology to generate regional PV scenarios based on aggregated power curves rather than traditional physical PV conversion models. Our approach is based on hourly mesoscale reanalysis irradiation data and power measurements and do not require additional variables such as ambient temperature or wind speed. It was used to simulate the PV generation on the German system between 2012 and 2015 showing high levels of correlation with actual measurements (93.02–97.60%) and small deviations from the expected capacity factors (0.02–1.80%). Therefore, we are confident about the ability of the proposed model to accurately generate realistic large-scale PV scenarios.