Paying for the Internet in the new millennium

The more a technology matures and gains popularity, the less one has to understand in order to use it. Similarly, the less a user has to understand, the greater the number of users who follow, leading to more imaginative uses of that technology. Predicting the Internet's future by the more-of-the-same approach (starting with Moore's law for both computing and communication) leads to obvious generic predictions (typically using terms like "the new millennium"). The really interesting innovations result from paradigm changes that are difficult to predict. However, one thing is guaranteed: the fundamentals never change, including the laws of physics and those of human nature. There are two important fundamental laws of large systems: someone must be in charge and plan it; and someone must pay for it. The future character of the Internet will be determined by those who will pay for it. However, the cost of the Internet is not just that of moving and viewing the bits. It includes the cost of providing the content, not just the distribution, because the real value of the Internet is the content it makes accessible. To sum it up: there is a crucial fork in the road for the character of the Internet. One path leads to an Internet whose content is primarily paid by commercial interests (like commercial television). The other path leads to an Internet whose content is primarily paid by its users (like public television). These are very different models with fundamentally opposing implications for the future character of the Internet.