The Electrification of the Marine Industry [Viewpoint]

All technological changes follow certain predictable patterns typically referred to as Kondratiev (often spelled as “Kondratieff”) waves or cycles, named after the Russian economist Nikolai Dmitriyevich Kondratiev (1892-1938). It is generally acknowledged that these cycles typically last approximately 50 years for the world economy at large. More accuratetiming, however, is not always easy to predict, and there is also a question regarding if it is the technological changes that cause the Kondratieff cycles or the economy that drives technological changes. Although there is no universally accepted precise description of these waves and how they work, most tend to agree that it is technology that drive these cycles. It was van Gelderen and Schumpeter that first saw technological change in a wide sense as a driver of these waves.