Multi-level expert-modelling for the evaluation of hot water load management opportunities in South Africa

An object-oriented bottom-up approach is proposed for the detailed evaluation of hot water load management opportunities. The requirement for accurate physically based models, which are computationally efficient and deliver real-world nonlinear behaviour is addressed by expert-models. These expert-models are calibrated using physical measurements and in combination with the bottom-up approach, are capable of explicitly quantifying the effects of the proposed hot water load management strategy both on a per customer level, as well as on a rolled-up system level. Measured values for the important exogenous variables such as inlet water temperature, ambient air temperature and hot water usage patterns were used to drive the simulation case-study presented in this paper. In the case-study, the effects of different element ratings within the hot water cylinders are evaluated and detailed numerical results are presented.