Machine learning of real-time power systems reliability management response

In this paper we study how supervised machine learning could be applied to build simplified models of realtime (RT) reliability management response to the realization of uncertainties. The final objective is to import these models into look-ahead operation planning under uncertainties. Our response models predict in particular the real-time reliability management costs and the resulting reliability level of the system. We tested our methodology on the IEEE-RTS96 benchmark. Among the supervised learning algorithms tested, extremely randomized trees, kernel ridge regression and neural networks appear to be the best methods for this application. Furthermore, by using feature “importances” computed by tree-based ensemble methods, we were able to extract the most relevant variables to predict the response of real-time reliability management, and thus obtain a better understanding of the system properties.