Modelling population growth, shrinkage and aging using a hybrid simulation approach: Application to healthcare

This paper describes a hybrid simulation model that integrates the System Dynamic approach with discrete time control to formulate the projections of population evolution. The study relies on historical demographic data and the officially formulated scenarios for the most likely population projections developed for the region. The results of the simulation experiments provide valuable insights into dynamics of regional demographic trends and offer a well-defined starting point for future research in the health policy field. The intensity and structure of the demand for healthcare services depend heavily on age-gender profiles that change due to ongoing extensions of the average expected length of life, the aging of population, the continuing trend of declining number of births and the steadily growing number of deaths. The preliminary findings show promise in using the hybrid simulation approach for more advanced exploration of demography dependent health policy issues.