A fuzzy approach to scenario analysis in strategic planning

This study investigates the properties and method of fuzzy scenario analysis. In order to cope with the issues of data shortage and linguistic expression of an expert in a strategic planning, this study incorporates the concept of fuzzy set theory into scenario analysis, so that the uncertainties involved in a strategic planning can be considered. Based on Brauers and Weber's method (1988) in scenario analysis, we proposed a method of the fuzzy scenario analysis. It includes: 1) the analysis of factors, 2) the possible analysis of outcomes, 3) the compatible analysis of scenarios, 4) the possible analysis of scenarios, and 5) the determination of the main scenarios. Following this structure, we can describe the main pictures of future developments with their degrees of possibilities. The propose method has been compared with Brauers and Weber's method and applied to broadband telecommunication strategic planning with satisfactory results.