Evaluation of recent prediction models using a long-term database of rainfall rate data

The performance of both a recent rainfall rate model and the inter-annual variability prediction method proposed by the International Telecommunication Union has been assessed taking advantage of the availability of 16 years of rain gauge data. The above rainfall rate model produces as well monthly rainfall rate distributions that have been compared with the experimental monthly distributions achieving good results. The procedure proposed in the ITU variability prediction method has been adapted to test its usefulness to estimate monthly and seasonal variability. In some cases, fair agreement has been found between estimated and experimental variability.