Probabilistic VOR error due to several scatterers — Application to wind farms

This paper introduces a method to calculate the VOR error due to multipaths from several known scatterers within known quantiles. In such a configuration, the amplitudes of the multipaths can be numerically or analytically calculated, whereas their phases are modelled as uniformly distributed. A probabilistic formulation of the VOR error that overestimates its variance is introduced to obtain the quantiles. The method is useful to obtain probabilities of occurrence of large VOR errors for multiple configurations and in a short computation time. Examples with wind farms are presented.