Modeling Indonesia's rice supply and demand using system dynamics

Rice is the staple food consumed by approximately 95% of the Indonesian population. Thus, rice becomes one of the strategic issues and all decisions regarding rice impact the population. The Indonesian government targets to achieve food security and rice-sufficiency, which are attainable considering the fact that the total annual domestic rice production has exceeded the total national consumption. A system dynamics model has been used to simulate the rice supply and demand, considering factors such as dried paddy, rice conversion factor, climate anomalies, and delayed harvest time. However, the result of the study has shown that rice importation will still be required to fulfill the demand in 2020, given that there is no improvement from the current situation. Therefore, three scenarios are proposed in order to achieve rice self-sufficiency. Scenario I, improving the productivity, provides the most promising result.