Predictive analysis in energy management system

Complexities of smart grid and increasing share of renewable resources require development of intelligent decision-making support systems. Predictive Analysis of the power system extended several hours into near future can provide an insight into potential operational emergencies and assist in taking proactive corrective actions. The proposed prediction of network conditions takes advantage of load forecast, generation forecast, interchange schedules, dynamic line ratings, planned outages, and weather forecast. This paper presents the implementation results of look-ahead analysis for a large US electrical utility. Monitoring of projected violations and the derivatives of their trends provide enhanced monitoring capability to detect dangerous situations developing in the power system. The real-time prediction and intelligent alarming enhances situational awareness of operators in the control room.