Load peak forecasting in different load patterns situations

Load forecast is becoming currently more fundamental in planning, operating and controlling of modern electric power systems. Nowadays the load peak forecast is also important, because it is of great interest in economy stability and improvement in the electrical systems. This paper presents an approach for load forecasting in the medium voltage distribution network in Portugal. The forecast horizon is short term, from 24 hours up to a week. The forecast method is based on the use of artificial neural networks. The study was done with the time series of telemetry data of EDP medium voltage substations, applied for the urban areas of Évora and Oporto. The performance of the proposed methodology is illustrated by graphical results and evaluated with statistical indicators. The mean absolute percentage error was lower than 5%, meaning that chosen methodology clearly validate the feasibility of the test.