Project scheduling using state-based probabilistic decision networks

The paper presents probabilistic CPM scheduling using an add-on program to the STROBOSCOPE simulation system that allows dependence and correlation between activity durations as well as control over precedence and the selection of paths. Activity durations and sequencing can be defined in terms of the dynamic information that becomes available as a project evolves and includes the actual start date and duration of activities already started. An example highway project illustrates the modeling power of this approach.