Real time estimation of PV output in distribution systems based on smart meters and irradiance measurement

In Japan, the capacity of photovoltaic (PV) system installed in residential areas is increasing dramatically since the launch of feed-in-tariff (FIT) in 2012. When a large amount of PV systems are installed in distribution systems, areal PV power output needs to be estimated in real time to prevent an overload when recovering from a power system accident. This paper proposes a method to estimate areal PV power output by using smart meters, a pyranometer, and power flow sensors. Simulation results show that the RMSE of the proposed method is less than 5% of the total system capacity and that the proposed method can estimate at a good accuracy throughout the year.