A probabilistic situational awareness and reasoning methodology for satellite communications resource management

This paper presents a satellite communications (SATCOM) situational awareness and decision-making methodology that incorporates situational uncertainty with a probabilistic reasoning representation of the SATCOM network and operating environment. The situational awareness and decision model is developed using probabilistic Functional Causal Modeling (FCM) and multiattribute utility theory. The probabilistic FCM is a Bayesian Network developed from the mathematical functions that represent the underlying phenomena of the SATCOM system, operating environment, and operational dynamics. The model provides a formal system for representing cause and effect of system reconfiguration and is built upon well-established engineering models for SATCOM systems. The multiattribute decision model provides a formal basis for in situ decision-making that combines user goals and situational uncertainty. The paper presents the theoretical basis of the technique as well as implementation examples with quantitative analyses. Characteristics of the model components, associated sources of uncertainty, and associated impact on performance and decision making are addressed. The discussion demonstrates the model's use for performance prediction as well as inference of SATCOM resource allocations needed to meet performance goals with desired levels of confidence.