EV\/HEV Technology: Are We There Yet? Viewpoint

Progress in transportation electrification and, more specifically, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and EVs, has ebbed and flowed, sometimes with large swings, over the last several decades. The enthusiasm around the Toyota Prius' technical and commercial success led some to believe that we had finally reached a tipping point in terms of the acceptance of electrified powertrains. Well, as travelers on the century-old transportation-electrification road, have we reached our destination yet? In the case at hand, EVs and HEVs have been around since the beginning of the automobile and did successfully penetrate some niche nonautomotive markets before, sometimes way before,the Prius (for instance, trains in the 1930s, mining equipment in the 1950s, and forklifts more recently). So, obviously, the time frame for the S-curve is measured in decades and is spanning over a century, an unusually large scale for innovation penetration. This and other factors make it particularly difficult to assess where and when a penetration tipping point will be finally reached.