The pitfalls of prediction [Spectral Lines]

This year is the 50th anniversary of IEEE Spectrum. A half century is a milestone that cannot go uncelebrated, but how to do it? Two of the standard approaches for a magazine‚s commemorative issue are to take a fond look backward or a bold look forward. The Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue, also 50 this year, took the former tack, with a look at bikinis over the decades (it turns out that they get smaller, they get a little bit bigger, and then they get smaller again). Forecasting is harder but more interesting. For our 50th, we wanted an inspiring and compelling view of the world of tech 25 to 50 years from now, beyond the window of straightforward prediction. We liked the idea of making inferences, at least, about a future as distant from today as we are now from the year of the magazine‚s founding.