Technology management: using a DSS in project cost analysis

Summary form only as given. A crucial issue in technology management is the successful implementation of complex and innovative projects. A difficult problem is the ex-ante economic estimation, from the feasibility analysis to project budgeting and implementation. Due to the presence of technical and financial risks, this problem becomes more critical the greater the size of the project and the less experience on technology is available. The traditional procedures of cost estimating used in the engineering field are unsuccessful in these cases: the lack of information prevents the possibility of implementing the traditional "bottom-up" analytical techniques of cost estimating; moreover, innovation reduces the value of the experience, and as a consequence the possibility of using parametric models of cost estimating based on appropriate statistical techniques. In the case of large, complex and innovative projects, new approaches and more sophisticated models are requested. The aim of the paper is to illustrate some criteria to face complexity and innovation in project cost estimation, with particular reference to large engineering projects. Both theoretical aspects and practical approaches are exposed; the scope is to verify the utility of new conceptual instruments in building reliable computer-aided cost estimating models. A schematic description of the characteristics of a computer tool that has been developed and now applied in power industry, offers a practical example.