UK electricity market modeling using combined Conjectural Variation equilibrium method and hierarchical optimization algorithm

Various methods such as equilibrium models are introduced to manage the risks of participating in the electricity market. Especially in those electricity markets with specific structures, such as BETTA (British Electricity Transmission and Trading Agreement), based on bilateral trading, the usage of this modeling becomes more significant. This paper proposes a novel Conjectural Variation (CV) equilibrium model for bilateral electricity markets, such as BETTA, to reduce the market participants' exposure to risk. Through an iterative coordination algorithm, consisting of a conjectural variations equilibrium model of an oligopolistic set of generators with a corresponding oligopsonistic equilibrium model of a set of supply companies, the `match' of both quantity and price between these two models can be obtained. This match can be found by a hierarchical optimization approach, using the Matlab Direct-Search optimization method.