Using air-ground data link and operator-provided planning data to improve ATM decision support system performance

Decision support systems (DSS) are being developed for many air traffic management (ATM) applications. Examples include conflict detection, conflict resolution, evaluation of user reroute requests, and flow management. The usefulness of these systems, and hence their capability to provide benefits to airspace users, is strongly dependent on their ability to accurately predict aircraft trajectories. Although current prototypes achieve adequate trajectory prediction accuracy using available information, deficiencies in the available information set limit achievable prediction accuracy. Improved prediction accuracy may enable development of more advanced ATM DSS, providing greater benefit to airspace users. This paper describes a study evaluating the use of two possible additional data sources to improve trajectory prediction: air-ground data link of aircraft speed and wind information, and additional flight planning information received from aircraft operators. Incorporation of air-ground data link reports into a prototype DSS was found to significantly improve trajectory prediction accuracy and stability. Work is underway on evaluating the prediction accuracy benefits of additional flight planning information.