Forecasting on the crude palm oil and kernel palm production: Seasonal ARIMA approach

The purpose of this study is to develop crude palm oil and kernel palm production using SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). The data set used in this study is production of crude palm oil and kernel palm from June 2001 until May 2011. The accuracy of the forecasts was then measured by the MAE (Mean Absolute Error), MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error), RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) and MSE (Mean Square Error). In conclusion, the model SARIMA(0,1,2)(1,1,3)
₁₂
was choose to forecast the crude palm oil production while the model SARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,0)
₁₂
was choose to forecast kernel palm production. The results showed that the production for crude palm oil and kernel palm are increase than the previous year.