Factor analysis of interceptor capture probability

The capture probability of interceptors has been deeply studied. Firstly, the definition of capture probability is analyzed. It is transformed into calculating the probability that the relative position vector between the target and the interceptor locates in a certain cone. The relative position vector and associated co-variance matrix are projected in line-of-sight coordinates, and the 3-dimensional integral of a probability function in a cone is calculated to obtain the capture probability. The integral equation is a complicated expression of probability, and it is simplified to an explicit approximate expression according to some assumptions based on the characteristics of the engineering problems. The approximation precision is analyzed by comparative simulation difference, which indicates that approximate assumptions are reasonable. Utilizing the explicit expression, the characteristics of capture probability are analyzed respectively with the factors, such as the distance between the interceptor and the target, the precision of relative position vector, the maximum capture distance and the maximum field angle of interceptor seeker.