Aerospace applications of Weibull and Monte Carlo simulation with importance sampling

Recent developments in reliability modeling and computer technology have made it practical to use the Weibull time-to-failure distribution to model the system reliability of complex fault-tolerant computer-based systems. These system models are becoming increasingly popular in space system applications as a result of mounting data that support the decreasing Weibull failure distribution and the expectation of increased system reliability. This presentation introduces the new reliability modeling developments and demonstrates their application to a novel space system application. The application is a proposed guidance, navigation and control system for use in a long duration manned spacecraft for a possible Mars mission. Comparisons to the constant failure rate model are presented and the ramifications of doing so are discussed.