Using prognostic system and decision analysis techniques in aircraft maintenance cost-benefit models

Aircraft operators, manufacturers and maintenance teams have shown growing interest in prognostic systems to maximize equipment useful life and minimize operational and maintenance costs during aircraft useful life. Cost-benefit models are the key to demonstrate the value of prognostics and health monitoring (PHM) technology. In cost-benefit simulation, the decision making process of choosing one maintenance opportunity or another shall consider the risks and costs associated with each possible choice. If probability density functions (PDF) associated with a prognostic system forecast are available, they must also be taken into account. Although many cost-benefit models have been proposed, cost information has not been used in the maintenance opportunity choice. The purpose of this work is to explore potential benefits of decision analysis techniques in choosing the best maintenance opportunity when PHM information is available. A simple example is presented when the maintenance opportunity must be chosen based on a cost avoidance criterion.