Fuzzy cognitive maps for policy analysis

Fuzzy cognitive maps are introduced as a way to model state changes in a dynamic system where policy and technological components must be directly compared. To illustrate the process of developing a map and infer state changes from it, an action/reaction arms race of the Richardson type is modeled. Because fuzzy cognitive maps qualitatively capture the essential interactions of a system, numerical predictability of outputs is lost. Instead, the user is gaining a more seemless way to compare information and artifacts that have lack a common numerical measure.