Decision making using early warning information on extreme weather

Though probability weather forecasts such as seasonal forecasts offer several benefits over categorical forecasts, they have not been used effectively in practical application. Recently, a new type of probability forecast named early warning information on extreme weather has started service in Japan. It has much more information available than previous seasonal forecasts. This paper describes a way of decision making using early warning information on extreme weather, and considers inventory management at a small shop as an example.