Measurement of forest fire risk based on VaR

Forest fire is the most important risk to the preservation of forest resources. In order to put forest fire under control, it is very important to forecast the forest fire risk. This paper aims at the risk measurement of forest fire. Based on the definition of forest fire risk, the common methods for measuring forest fire risk are reviewed and compared in the paper. It is pointed out that the disadvantages of methods used to measure forest fire risk lie in their monotous index and the ignorance of decision-makers' attitudes. In order to improve measurement of forest fire risk, the method of VaR is fully discussed. And the utility-based measuring method for forest fire risk is suggested in the paper.