A Bayesian Note on Reliability Growth During a Development Testing Program

The problem of estimating the reliability of a system which is undergoing development testing is considered from a Bayesian standpoint. Formally, m sets of binomial trials are performed under conditions which lead to an ordering, θ
₁
< θ
_2m
, of the binomial parameters. The parameter of interest is θ
_m
, the final underlying reliability of the system. The marginal posterior pdf for θ
_m
is easily obtained when uniform prior pdf's are assumed. The method is illustrated.