Case study for the integration of 12 GW wind power in the Dutch power system by 2020

In this paper, we investigate the possibility of integrating 12 GW of onshore and offshore wind energy in the power system of the Netherlands. Interconnection capacities to the rest of the synchronous UCTE system and HVDC connections to Great Britain and Norway are modelled as flow gates, while sufficient transmission capacity for integrating wind is assumed to be present within the Dutch system itself. For this case study, we use realistic time series of aggregated 15-minute wind power production and forecast, based on one year of wind speed measurements and forecasts at various locations in the Netherlands and its coastal waters, and multi-turbine wind farm models. The technical capabilities of the foreseen conventional generation portfolios of the Netherlands and its neighbouring countries are modelled in detail, in terms of ramping abilities, fuel efficiency, and minimum up and down times. Particular attention is also paid to wind energy developments in Germany, since high correlations exist between the wind power outputs of the two countries. A preliminary evaluation in terms of margin at peak load, minimum load problems, and ability of conventional units to follow the load less wind variations is made, based on the net load duration curves of Netherlands and Germany in 2020. It is shown that smaller amounts of wasted wind (i.e. wind energy that cannot be taken by the system) due to minimum load problems occur when exchanges of excess wind energy can be scheduled between the two countries close to the operation time. This shows the importance of having larger geographic areas and well-organized cross-border trading to facilitate larger amounts of integrated wind energy. However, wasted wind cannot be completely avoided due to correlations in low load - high wind situations between the two countries. These results are confirmed through detailed chronological simulations of one year of operation, using a unit commitment and economic dispatch tool specifically adapted to perform wind integration studies. The potential for demand-side management to allow for a better integration of wind power is briefly explored.