Analytical modeling of chronological reservoir operation in probabilistic production costing [of hydrothermal power systems]

This paper describes an extension of the Baleriaux methodology that represents chronological aspects of hydrothermal power system reservoir operation. The production costing problem is decomposed into a sequence of chronological hydro reliability problems. Those reliability problems are analytically solved by a sequence of convolutions of reservoir storage levels, demand, inflows and generation capacity. The methodology is illustrated in a case study with a utility-derived system, and the results are compared with existing solution schemes.