Probabilistic Evaluation Method of Available Transfer Capability Considering Reliability Margins in Transmission Network

This paper presents a novel evaluation method of available transfer capability, total transfer capability and power supply reliability margins, based on Monte Carlo simulation considering system uncertainties. IEEJ WEST 10-machine system model is utilized to examine the effectiveness of the proposed method. Also, this paper evaluates the economical benefit for ensuring the reliability margins. The simulation results show that the margins play a significant role in the determination of the ATC.