EVAGULF — protection of the aquatic communities in the Gulf of Finland: risk-based policymaking

Most of the analyses related to eutrophication focus on cyanobacterial blooms or increased primary production. However, eutrophication may also lead to disappearance of species, which is a real risk to the ecosystem. In this paper, we introduce a prototype of a decision assessment model that takes into account the biodiversity risks of eutrophication. The model was developed within the EVAGULF project and it also includes a Bayesian classification tool for water areas, needed in the implementation of the EU water framework directive. Existing monitoring databases, results from published literature and expert knowledge have been integrated and analyzed by Bayesian risk assessment methodology. The selected computational methods enable combining data that are of different nature as well as concrete elucidation of benefits and risks associated with alternative management decisions. The preliminary results enable evaluation of the country-specific abatement measures: e.g. which areas and populations can be managed only by national management actions and in which cases international co-operation is needed to achieve the objectives. The role of the global climate change is also considered. This kind of knowledge is essential for more cost-effective use of the financial resources available for the protection of the Gulf of Finland.