A New Approach to Forecasting Daily Peak Loads [includes discussion]

A new definition of a standard base load for an electrical utility allows the separation of the load into base, annual growth, and weather components. With this system, a method of load forecasting for Ontario Hydro has been developed and tested for 10 months. The median error on forecasts made 24 hours in advance has been 1.0 per cent (%). Tables enabling the conversion of a weather forecast into a daylight illumination forecast are also given.