Research on Risk in Long-Term Reservoir Dynamic Probability Scheduling

This paper presents the concept of engineering risk, the algorithm of mean first order second moment (MFOSM) and the approach for long-term reservoir dynamic probability scheduling (LRDPS). MFOSM is applied to study the current stage risk in LRDPS and the risk analysis model is built up for corresponding annual scheduling. Tested in Dan Jiangkou plant, which belongs to Central China Power Grid, the experiment shows that the approach is feasible and can be the assistance of scheduling decision.