Development, Application, and Institutionalization of a System Simulation Model for Korean Agricultural Policy Analysis

The Korean agricultural sector model (KASM) was developed in Korea by a multidisciplinary team of Korean and American researchers The eclectic approach used by the joint Korean-American team in developing the KASM set of models is explained. A brief description of the models, examples of their application, and progress toward their institutionalization into the Korean agricultural decision structure are given. The description of this work should be useful to other such teams engaged in similar activities. KASM is a system of five simulation models which can be used, independently or in conibination with one another, for agricultural planning and policy analysis by the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries. KASM's overall problem definition and structure are closely related to broad national values held by Korean policymakers with respect to agricultural development. Likewise, the five component models of the KASM system reflect key elements of any agricultural sector analysis: population; crop technology change; farm resource allocation and production; demand, prices, and foreign trade; and feedback linkages between agriculture and the rest of the economy. Each of the five models was tested independently and in combination as part of the credibility-testing process, in which model credibility is viewed as growing out of performance in five types of tests: coherence (validation), correspondence (verification), clarity, utility, and workability. KASM has been used on a number of occasions in analyses for preparation of Korea's Fourth Five-Year Plan, in analyzing grains price policy options, and in projecting food processing, marketing, and transportation capacity requirements.