On The Application Of Esscher's Approximation To Computation Of Generation System Reliability And Production Costing Indexes

This paper studies the performance of Esscher's larce deviation approximation scheme for the calculation of the LOLP index and the unit capacity factors in a production costing context. This approximation is found to be accurate and speedy for the purpose of LOLP corputations. The proposed large deviation algorithm also represents a viable computational procedure for determining production costing functions. It appears to be very accurate for the purpose of estimating the capacity factors of peaking units.