Power System Production Cost Calculations - Sample Studies Recognition Forced Outages

The purpose of this paper is to present results of energy production cost calculations made for three sample power systems using a new, probabilistic technique which computes the statistical, expected value of the energy cost. These results demonstrate the importance of the effect of forced outages on expected, future power system energy costs. Unscheduled unit outages may increase calculated production costs by 2 to 5 percent. The calculations yield both expected cost values and loss-of-energy power system reliability measures and will provide information on the energy and power demand expected to be required for emergencies. These data are useful for system design. The paper illustrates the effect of the size of the available generating reserve on the system's probable loss-of-energy and expected production costs.