On the inevitability of probability for expert systems: An analysis based on social theory of knowledge

The author deals with the thesis of V. Lindley on the inevitability of the probability approach to the treatment of uncertainty in AI and expert systems. The specific arguments given by Lindley for such a stand are analyzed in the light of a social theory of knowledge, a view of knowledge proposed by David Bloor based on Wittgenstein's later philosophical works. By doing a philosophical analysis of Lindley's stand on this issue, a case is made for a sound philosophical basis of fuzzy logic. The constructive direction evolved through the philosophical analysis is the need for an effective representation of the family of probability concepts in decision support systems. In this context, a design framework for such a representation has been proposed using a logic programming language.<
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