A Bayes method for assessing product-reliability during development testing

A fully Bayes approach is presented for analyzing product reliability during the development phase. Based on a Bayes version of the Barlow-Scheuer reliability-growth model, it is assumed that the product goes through a series of test/modification stages, where each product test yields attribute (pass-fail) data, and failure types are classified as fixable or nonfixable. Relevant information on both the failure probabilities and the reliability-growth process is used to motivate the prior joint distribution for the probability of each failure type over the specified range of testing. Results at a particular test-stage can be used to update the knowledge about the probability of each failure type (and thus product reliability) at the current test-stage as well as at subsequent test-stages, and at the end of the development phase. A relative ease of incorporation of prior information and a tractability of the posterior analysis are accomplished by using a Dirichlet distribution as the prior distribution for a transformation of the failure probabilities.<
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