A model for technology anticipation

A method for estimating the likelihood that new technical systems can be developed is described. The method includes alternative ways of implementing system functions. Each technology component is included within a technology structure that describes alternative ways in which the system can be implemented. The probability of each component is estimated as a function of time. The method combines these probabilities in a mathematically correct way to estimate the overall probability. The entire method has been programmed in a PROLOG program to produce both overall probabilities and a sensitivity analysis showing how sensitive this probability is to each component. The sensitivity is based on the resulting linear equations produced by the method.<
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