Fatigue analysis framework for fleet management using bayesian networks

Fleet management is a sequential multi-criteria decision problem with uncertainties related to both the information at the time of decision-making, and the outcome of the decision. Structural risk and reliability analyses provide a baseline for decision-making, and can be used to provide input information for a higher-level fatigue analysis framework that takes into account decision criteria, reflecting fleet management strategy, in the decision analyses. A 'top-down' fatigue analysis framework is introduced, where the framework allows the fleet manager to make 'what-if' analyses of the performance of alternative flight task mixes or flight programs. The required measurement data is any fatigue life measures obtained from fatigue-monitoring systems. These are used as evidence in Bayesian inference on fatigue damage parameters needed for higher-level analyses. The framework can be used to assess feasibility and/or rank flight and maintenance programs designed during the flight operations planning phase. The implementation of the fatigue analysis framework requires the development of computer software. Planning of the software development process is under way