Device down scaling and expected circuit performance

Based on appropriate down scaling of devices and reasonable extrapolation of present technological possibilities, circuit performance of several LSI technologies has been calculated. From a set of impurity distributions, oxide thickness, etc., process parameters have been derived, which have been converted into transistor-model parameters for use in a circuit simulation program. Although for every technology a substantial improvement in performance is predicted, MOS appears to benefit most from scaling down. The speed of ED-MOS eventually rivals that of ECL and the speed-power product that of I
²
L. Below 1 µm gate width a delay time of 100 ps and a speed-power product of 20 fJ are possible. I
²
L is by far the slowest technology, but it has the best packing density. Current densities in MOS approach that of ECL.