Semiconductors: The key to computational plenty

Semiconductors, through their pervasion of electronics, are leading to the availability of low-cost computational capabaility. This has manifested itself in a variety of products ranging from low end calculators, learning aids, and games to minicomputers and office systems, to supercomputers. These products, in turn, are pervading the home, the office, the factory, small business, the military, entertainment, communication, transportation, indeed, all aspects of our lives. In its brief 30-year life, the semiconductor industry has grown to a 10 billion dollar business. Over 4000 Gbits of semiconductor memory were produced last year, about 1000 bits for every human on earth. Further improvements in semiconductor device and manufacturing technology, leading to Very-Large-Scale Integration (VLSI), will result in even more complex and powerful products at low cost, having, in many cases, a high degree of portability. These products, by leveraging man's mental capabilities, have the potential for causing an impact on society exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution, which leveraged man's physical capabilities. This paper discusses the history, status, and trends of semiconductor technology, the advances required to make VLSI happen, the new products and applications that this will make possible, and some of the potential impacts on society which might result from the availability of Computational Plenty.