The probability wheel is guaranteed to work

The use of probabilities on probabilities (POPs) in decision analysis is addressed. A mathematical model of the probability wheel method of probability assessment is developed. A method to modify this model so that it is consistent with POPs, avoids infinite regress, and still provides a precise measurement of the underlying probability value being assessed is presented. An algorithm is given for the POP measurement procedure (PMP) that allows the client to give uncertain or inconsistent responses and still provides all the information necessary to measure the underlying distribution function unambiguously.<
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