Statistical model for estimating the failure probability in the field

This paper provides a statistical model for estimating the failure probability in the field given the known numbers of customers and reported failures. In this research we have studied two cases. In the first case we assume that the probabilities to fulfill the specification and to report the failure are known. In the second case we assume that these two probabilities are unknown, but we apply the Bayes method to incorporate engineering beliefs. We have proved in both cases that our new developed model yields good results. Further research is needed if more than one specification is tested.