Aircraft safety modeling for time-limited dispatch

This paper offers an alternative method of modeling the time-limited dispatch (TLD) of aircraft. Existing methods involve the use of fault tree analysis and Markov analysis with various simplifying assumptions. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is the suggested alternative, which overcomes the problems associated with the other techniques, such as dependencies between basic events (fault tree analysis) or huge number of system states (Markov analysis). The results obtained from the analysis of a simple example are compared for the existing modeling approaches and MCS. MCS is seen to have potential advantages, especially when modeling TLD for large, full scale systems.